When you are famous it is hard to work on small problems. This is what did Shannon in. After information theory, what do you do for an encore? The great scientists often make this error. They fail to continue to plant the little acorns from which the mighty oak trees grow. They try to get the big thing right off. And that isn't the way things go. So that is another reason why you find that when you get early recognition it seems to sterilize you. In fact I will give you my favorite quotation of many years. The Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, in my opinion, has ruined more good scientists than any institution has created, judged by what they did before they came and judged by what they did after.
What is something everyone in your world agrees about that you think is wrong?
Question
What is one of the best or most worthwhile investments you have ever made — of money, time, or energy?
Money & investment
Question
How has a failure, or apparent failure, set you up for later success? Do you have a favourite failure?
Failure & regret
Under the stress of the event, we felt, the soldiers' true nature would reveal itself, and we would be able to tell who would be a good leader and who would not. But the trouble was that, in fact, we could not tell. Every month or so we had a "statistics day," during which we would get feedback from the officer-training school, indicating the accuracy of our ratings of candidates' potential. The story was always the same: our ability to predict performance at the school was negligible. But the next day, there would be another batch of candidates to be taken to the obstacle field, where we would face them with the wall and see their true natures revealed. I was so impressed by the complete lack of connection between the statistical information and the compelling experience of insight that I coined a term for it: "the illusion of validity."
Laureate-written autobiography for Les Prix Nobel, Nobel Prize Outreach, 1 December 2002 source ↗
Others on this question
View all 82 →
Richard Hamming
Mathematician and computer scientist; Turing Award, 1968
Recorded
Bell Communications Research Colloquium Seminar, Morristown, New Jersey, Bell Communications Research Colloquium Seminar (transcription hosted by the University of Virginia Department of Computer Science), 7 March 1986
source ↗
Howard Marks
Co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management
In my opinion, the key to dealing with the future lies in knowing where you are, even if you can't know precisely where you're going. Knowing where you are in a cycle and what that implies for the future is very different from predicting the timing, extent and shape of the next cyclical move.
Serena Williams
United States professional tennis player, 1995–2022
I never wanted to have to choose between tennis and a family. I don't think it's fair. If I were a guy, I wouldn't be writing this because I'd be out there playing and winning while my wife was doing the physical labor of expanding our family.
Nora Ephron
Journalist, essayist, screenwriter and film director
People think that when you write something it’s cathartic, and I had written a lot of personal articles at Esquire, and people always say, “Oh God, it must have been so great when you finally wrote about having small breasts.” No. You get through that, and then you write it. It is not the writing that is the catharsis.
More from Daniel Kahneman
View profile →Amos and I shared the wonder of together owning a goose that could lay golden eggs – a joint mind that was better than our separate minds. … Some of the greatest joys of our collaboration-and probably much of its success – came from our ability to elaborate each other's nascent thoughts: if I expressed a half-formed idea, I knew that Amos would be there to understand it, probably more clearly than I did, and that if it had merit he would see it. Like most people, I am somewhat cautious about exposing tentative thoughts to others – I must first make sure that they are not idiotic. In the best years of the collaboration, this caution was completely absent.
Recorded
Laureate-written autobiography for Les Prix Nobel, Nobel Prize Outreach, 1 December 2002
source ↗
I got quite nice results in my one-question studies, but never wrote up any of the work, because I had set myself impossible standards: in order not to pollute the literature, I wanted to report only findings that I had replicated in detail at least once, and the replications were never quite perfect. I realized only gradually that my aspirations demanded more statistical power and therefore much larger samples than I was intuitively inclined to run. This observation also came in handy some time later.
Recorded
Laureate-written autobiography for Les Prix Nobel, Nobel Prize Outreach, 1 December 2002
source ↗
More on values & belief
- Which living person do you most admire, and why? 410 answers
- What is the trait you most deplore in others? 202 answers
- What are you unwilling to optimise? 33 answers
- What have you come to understand about what it means to be human? 21 answers
- What do you need to believe in order to get through the day? 16 answers
- What important truth do very few people agree with you on? 15 answers
Also answered this
Andre Geim, Richard Hamming, Roger Penrose, Esther Duflo, Lee Berger, Maryam Mirzakhani
Search the directory for somebody in particular.
Explore further
- All values & belief questions
- Explore the archive — by field, age, era, and subject